WASHINGTON, July 7, 2025 – Following a contraction of 1.5% in 2024, Syria’s GDP is expected to grow modestly by 1% in 2025, amid continued security challenges, liquidity constraints, and suspended foreign assistance, according to a new World Bank report released today. The easing of sanctions provides some upside potential; however, progress remains limited as frozen assets and restricted access to international banking continue to hinder energy supply, foreign assistance, humanitarian support, and trade and investment.
The "Syria Macro Fiscal Assessment 2025" takes stock of Syria’s recent economic trajectory amid the ongoing political transition and regional instability. It highlights the severe erosion of Syria’s economic base, the chronic fiscal pressures, the profound impact of sanctions, conflict-driven disruptions, and the rise of informality and illicit economic activities since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011.
Fourteen years of conflict have devastated Syria’s economy, with GDP cumulatively contracting by more than 50% since 2010 and Gross National Income per capita falling to just $830 in 2024—well below the international threshold for low-income countries. Extreme poverty affects now one in four Syrians, while two-thirds live below the lower middle-income poverty line. Since the political transition, Syria has been facing a severe liquidity crisis due to a shortage of physical banknotes and broader disruptions in local currency circulation.
"Economic data for Syria is extremely scarce and hard to come by. This macro-fiscal assessment bridges critical information gaps and provides an important foundation for policy dialogue to revitalize economic growth and bring prosperity to Syria," said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Middle East Division Director.
The new Government has recently taken measures to unify the country’s macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary policies, focusing on good governance of public funds and sound fiscal and monetary management. Efforts are also being made to attract much-needed foreign investment and aid commitments to support economic recovery.
“Syria today is a land of opportunities, with immense potential across every sector. The government is actively driving reforms to deliver real results and visible progress on the ground”, said H.E. Yisr Barnieh, Minister of Finance. “This report highlights Syria’s enormous economic challenges, including from sanctions, but also provides important data and analysis that supports evidence-based policy making. We are very optimistic and confident that our economy will soon achieve higher growth and resume a path of sustainable development.”
The outlook for Syria remains subject to significant risks. Security challenges persist and securing oil imports will be a major challenge for the new government, potentially driving up fuel prices and inflation. On the upside, an agreement on resource-sharing or governance between the transitional government and northeastern authorities could boost national oil and gas production. Additionally, increased regional engagement—especially from Türkiye and some Gulf states—alongside the easing of sanctions, could facilitate the recovery and attract investments. The growing number of returning refugees and internally displaced people may also support medium-term economic revival, provided sanctions are eased to enable investment and trade.